Token taxes as a mechanism for reducing AI-driven power concentration.

A policy memo, co-authored with the Institute for Public Policy Research, resolving the open technical, economic, and legal questions blocking real-world implem

Tracking Mindless AI Usage Through Digital Biometrics

Analyzing user behavior patterns in chatbot interfaces to detect real-time symptoms of AI overdependence

Originality, Quantification, and Decomposition of Generalization.

Perform research to rigorously elucidate and quantify generalization versus memorization, and examine evidence of originality in LLMS.

LLMMatrix: Synthetic World Benchmark for Contamination Free LLM Forcasting

A contamination-free benchmark for measuring whether LLMs can forecast, or whether they're just remembering.

General Career Support

Disentangling Political Bias from Epistemic Integrity in AI Systems

An Integrative Framework for Auditing Political Preferences and Truth-Seeking in AI Systems

Metaculus' First Animal-Focused Forecasting Tournament

Generating decision-relevant forecasts for the animal advocacy community

Act I: Exploring emergent behavior from multi-AI, multi-human interaction

Community exploring and predicting potential risks and opportunities arising from a future that involves many independently controlled AI systems

AI forecasting and policy research by the AI 2027 team

AI Futures Project

Lightcone Infrastructure

Funding for LessWrong.com, the AI Alignment Forum, Lighthaven and other Lightcone Projects

Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025

A foresight and emergency response team seeking to react fast to calamities

Building Tooling to Map how Ideas Spread

The nooscope will deliver public tools to map how ideas spread, starting with psyop detection, within 18 months

Future-Proofing Forecasting: Easy Open-Source Solution

Free Forecasting For Everyone, Everywhere

Play money prediction markets

Community-run, open source prediction market platform

Investigating and informing the public about the trajectory of AI

Calibration City

Prediction markets have the potential to reshape the way we process information, but how accurate are they in practice?

Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups)

Local meetups of forecasters, fans of prediction markets, and others interested in improving humanity’s ability to predict the future.

Prototyping Planetary Movements

A coordination mechanism for financing ecological regeneration

Field research on How Parallel Societies Coordinate and Self-Govern

Coordination failure is the root of our global problems. We study the communities building new social orders from the ground up

More Computationally Efficent Alternative to LLMs

More Computationally Efficent Alternative to LLMs to Lower Compute Cost/Climate Impact