The Base Rate Times

News through prediction markets

Isaac's power-user Manifold search and dashboard

Exploring novel approaches to addressing Global Catastrophic Risk through policy

Operational Support for a Pilot Study on Complexity Modelling, Expert Judgement, and Deliberative Democracy for Risk Prioritization and Mitigation

Wasabipesto's Umbrella Project

Six Projects in Search of an Investor - Details inside

Tackling First-Week User Churn at Manifold 🐣

Creating a compelling onboarding and first-week experience to enhance user longevity

Extreme Probabilities Project

Explore a market structure that attempts to produce good probability estimates on highly-confident markets.

Predict on random markets - Manifold tool

"Just hand me markets to make bets on!"

Manifold corporate blog on Habr

Promoting prediction markets in software developers' community

Forecasting - AI Governance Policies

OPTIC

Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament

Manufacture Manyfold Manifolders in the Maritime Metropolis

Lets create a new defining addiction for Seattle!

Manifold: Live!

A weekly community livestream/discord call where top traders discuss the week's events on Manifold and live-bet with the audience on markets from new users

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland

Mirrorbot

Automatically mirror popular questions from other platforms to Manifold

Telegram bot for Manifold Markets

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet

Make ALERT happen

ALERT := Active Longtermist Emergency Response Team

Isaac's Blog Writing

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

Manifold Tournaments

Trading assistant bot (Remind Me)

Sends you notifications when markets that you are betting on have a big swing and allows you to set parameters for custom reminders

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets

Add additional social incentives to bet YES to publicly signal value/support/belief and NO to signal the opposite.

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets

An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets

Crystal Ballin' Podcast

New fortnightly podcast on all things prediction markets

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards

Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Comparing forecasting platform accuracy

Impact Assessment of Social Programs

Verifying and Quantifying the Outcomes of Nonprofits

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors

Promoting forecasts in order to help college choose their field of study, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk

Evaluating whether forecasts of earthquake risk lead people to take steps to prepare

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

Working towards GAAP For Impact Markets

Make large-scale analysis of Python code several orders of magnitude quicker

Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers

Make accurate, well-calibrated, and honest predictions with large language models.

Collaborative Resolution of Political Controversies

Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks

Forecasting GCRs is hard. How can we do it better, and how much better is that?

University Forecasting Clubs [OPTIC]

Funding to start 3-5 university forecasting clubs as a subproject of OPTIC

Eliciting Probability Trees

5 person dev team - if experts wrote down probabilities more, would we get better decisions?

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Social Forecasting Platform for Retail Investors

6-month support for the concept development.

Multiplayer RootClaim

Allowing prediction market participants to construct, share & clone prediction models

Base Rate Times

Like The Economist meets Metaculus

BaseX

New definition of value. Accounting for externalities.

Fund an expert veterinary panel to create guidelines for a slaughter-free future

The panel will create guidelines to phase out industrial animal agriculture and re-wild agricultural lands.

App for personal predictions with friends

Like Metaculus but more popular

~~Manifold corporate blog on Habr~~ [resubmitted]

AI Safety Policy Communication for Legislators (Blog)

A blog (which already has top policy decision makers in No.10 subscribed) to communicate non-technically ideas about AI safety (mostly).

Haruspex [Forecasting Competition Platform]

Mobile platform for some forecasting games

Predicting Replication in Academic Economics

Replicate one year of the AER, test robustness, and see if it's predictable.

Fund the localisation of LibreOffice into Pidgin/Bislama/Tok Pisin

Bringing open source software and digital ownership and identity to Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and the Solomons.

Implement a Small-Group Futarchy App

Decision markets for ad hoc group decision-making

DiPalConnect app

Digital Pal Connection App

Hire biosensor technicians to collect jhana data

Staff an already-scheduled retreat sufficiently to map the neural correlates of life-changing meditative states

Deploy an already built prediction website

For a smaller language - Bulgarian

Make forecasting fun again

Devise and execute fun/visible/viral forecasting engagement projects

Forecasting Knowledge to Brazil [and other Portuguese-speaking countries]

Organizing, translating and writing what we know [and forecast] about forecasting, in order to lower the entry barrier to a country of significant influence in the Global South and a long track of international cooperation

Can communication between contributors improve aggregate forecasting accuracy?

Previous research says no, but that research is incomplete.