Act I: Exploring emergent behavior from multi-AI, multi-human interaction

Community exploring and predicting potential risks and opportunities arising from a future that involves many independently controlled AI systems

Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025

A foresight and emergency response team seeking to react fast to calamities

Play money prediction markets

Community-run, open source prediction market platform

Future-Proofing Forecasting: Easy Open-Source Solution

Free Forecasting For Everyone, Everywhere

Calibration City

Prediction markets have the potential to reshape the way we process information, but how accurate are they in practice?

Adjacent News

Prediction Market Driven News

Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups)

Local meetups of forecasters, fans of prediction markets, and others interested in improving humanity’s ability to predict the future.

Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions

Forecasting tools by Sage. Fatebook: the fastest way to track your predictions. Quantified Intuitions: Forecasting training tools with rapid feedback loops

Lightcone Infrastructure

Funding for LessWrong.com, the AI Alignment Forum, Lighthaven and other Lightcone Projects

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"The End of Man?"

Using a 1960s novel to broaden the discourse on x-risk from ASI

Make ALERT happen

ALERT := Active Longtermist Emergency Response Team

Creating the Hypermanifest

Redefining AI's role in Human Connection and Interaction

The Base Rate Times

News through prediction markets

Forecasting - AI Governance Policies

Formation Research

Minimising Lock-In Risk

Charlie's Forecasting Tools

A batch of products and tools built around Manifold Markets and other forecasting ideas.

Wisdom Architecture: An Adaptive Layer for Cognitive Augmentation and Safer AI

Developing an innovative wisdom layer for AI that enhances its capabilities for deep analysis, safe AI, and creative solutions to complex systemic problems.

Automate Social Science and Produce Free, Open, Standardized Data

All funds go toward producing data

Eusaybia Kairos - A long-term, natural and non-linear probabilistic calendar

Kairos allows people to work with timescales that are years, decades and even centuries long, as opposed to normal calendars which are extremely short term.