Thank you! @nicksaraev

We have posted our 2025 retrospective and fundraiser post! I updated our project description with the text of it, and you can also read it on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eKGdCNdKjvTBG9i6y/toss-a-bitcoin-to-your-lightcone-lw-lighthaven-s-2026

Post on MDMA. Multiple people have told me it convinced them not to use MDMA, or allowed them to convince others not to do so. Note that this post is 7 years old, and if I was doing it today it would be much more quantified

This is true for me! I have had a bunch of friends over the years who considered doing MDMA, and the previous post was quite helpful for changing those people's minds on what drugs to take (which I think was in-expectation quite good for them). My guess is it prevented about 1.5 people in-expectation from doing MDMA at some point as a result of me linking to it.

Agree on this. I do think the strongest argument against funding Epoch for most people on Manifund is that it can and probably will be supported aggressively by existing large funders. Evidence that this isn't the case would update me a lot on more funding to Epoch being valuable.

Progress update: Lightcone is doing a big end-of-year fundraiser and as part of that have written a very detailed review/summary/update on how things are going over on LessWrong: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5n2ZQcbc7r4R8mvqc

@Eric-Neyman Thank you so much!

I've used Fatebook! It's been decent. At least once did the browser extension mess up formatting on a website I was on, but otherwise things have been pretty good. I generally think forecasting training tools and better prediction-accounting tools are pretty valuable.

Thank you!