NunoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere



Researcher & forecaster
$50,000total balance
$30,000charity balance
$0cash balance

$20000 in pending offers

About Me

I don't yet know what I will do with this money. Some threads that I am considering:

  • Grants whose appeal other funding sources can't understand.

  • Thiel-style funding: Grants to formidable people outside the EA community for doing things that they are intrinsically motivated to do and which might have a large positive effect on the world.

  • Targetted grants in the forecasting sphere, particularly around more experimentation.

  • Giving a large chunk of it to Riesgos Catastróficos Globales ( in particular.

  • Bets of the form "I am quite skeptical that you would do [some difficult thing], but if you do, happy for you to take my money, and otherwise I will take yours".

  • Bounties: like the above, but less adversarial, because you do get the amount if you succeed, but don't lose anything if you don't.

  • Non-AI longtermism.

  • Grants to the Spanish and German-speaking communities.

I am also considering doing things a bit different from what the current EA ecosystem currently does, just for the information value. For example:

  • Giving feedback at depth on applications that people pitch me on

    • The rationale is that this feedback could improve people's later career paths. I think that other funding orgs don't do this because they get overwhelmed with applications. But I'm not overwhelmed at the moment!

  • Putting bounties on people referring applications

  • Using Manifold prediction markets on the success of grants as a factor for evaluation

    • Requires grantees willing to be more transparent, though

That said, I'm generally seeking to do "the optimal thing", so if I get some opportunity that I think is excellent I'll take it, even if it doesn't fall into the above buckets.

Also, I guess that $50k is not that large an amount, so I'm either going to have to be fairly strategic, or get more money :)

As for myself personally, I'm maybe best known for starting Samotsvety Forecasting (—an excellent forecasting team, for being a prolific EA Forum poster (—since emigrated to, or for having done some work at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute on topics of estimation and evaluation.

Outgoing donations

Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globales$20000


NunoSempere avatar

Nuño Sempere

1 day ago

I think that RCG's object-level work is somewhat valuable, and also that they could greatly contribute to making the Spanish and Latin-American EA community become stronger. I think one could make an argument that this doesn't exceed some funding bar, but ultimately it doesn't go through.