NunoSempere avatar
Nuño Sempere

@NunoSempere

regrantor

Researcher & forecaster

https://nunosempere.com
$50,000total balance
$30,000charity balance
$0cash balance

$20000 in pending offers

About Me

I don't yet know what I will do with this money. Some threads that I am considering:

  • Grants whose appeal other funding sources can't understand.

  • Thiel-style funding: Grants to formidable people outside the EA community for doing things that they are intrinsically motivated to do and which might have a large positive effect on the world.

  • Targetted grants in the forecasting sphere, particularly around more experimentation.

  • Giving a large chunk of it to Riesgos Catastróficos Globales (https://riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com/) in particular.

  • Bets of the form "I am quite skeptical that you would do [some difficult thing], but if you do, happy for you to take my money, and otherwise I will take yours".

  • Bounties: like the above, but less adversarial, because you do get the amount if you succeed, but don't lose anything if you don't.

  • Non-AI longtermism.

  • Grants to the Spanish and German-speaking communities.

I am also considering doing things a bit different from what the current EA ecosystem currently does, just for the information value. For example:

  • Giving feedback at depth on applications that people pitch me on

    • The rationale is that this feedback could improve people's later career paths. I think that other funding orgs don't do this because they get overwhelmed with applications. But I'm not overwhelmed at the moment!

  • Putting bounties on people referring applications

  • Using Manifold prediction markets on the success of grants as a factor for evaluation

    • Requires grantees willing to be more transparent, though

That said, I'm generally seeking to do "the optimal thing", so if I get some opportunity that I think is excellent I'll take it, even if it doesn't fall into the above buckets.

Also, I guess that $50k is not that large an amount, so I'm either going to have to be fairly strategic, or get more money :)

As for myself personally, I'm maybe best known for starting Samotsvety Forecasting (samotsvety.org/)—an excellent forecasting team, for being a prolific EA Forum poster (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/users/nunosempere?sortedBy=top)—since emigrated to nunosempere.com/blog, or for having done some work at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute on topics of estimation and evaluation.

Outgoing donations

Support Riesgos Catastroficos Globales$20000

Comments

NunoSempere avatar

Nuño Sempere

1 day ago

I think that RCG's object-level work is somewhat valuable, and also that they could greatly contribute to making the Spanish and Latin-American EA community become stronger. I think one could make an argument that this doesn't exceed some funding bar, but ultimately it doesn't go through.