Project summary

• Sage is building tools to make sense of the future. So far, we’ve built:

  1. Fatebook (stats): The fastest way to track your predictions, designed for individuals and orgs aiming to have a large positive impact. You can use it on the web (fatebook.io) and through Slack, Discord and browser integrations. Users have recorded ~50k forecasts on ~25k questions

  2. Quantified Intuitions (stats): Forecasting training tools with rapid feedback loops

     • Pastcasting: predict past events to rapidly practice forecasting. ~90 visitors/month

     • Calibration: a calibration training game, with decks of questions on various EA-relevant topics. ~90 visitors/month

     • The Estimation Game: a monthly Fermi estimation game, designed for teams. Played by around 300 teams per month, designed to be an off-the-shelf event for groups to run (e.g. EA groups, workplaces)

     • Anki with Uncertainty: an Anki plugin to turn any flashcard deck into a calibration training tool. This was a smaller project

What are this project's goals? How will you achieve them?

See our theory of change, and current evidence for it.

How will this funding be used?

1. Expand and maintain our current suite of tools based on user feedback. For example, we would likely add support for quantity and date questions to Fatebook and improve its enterprise support

2. Experiments in new use-cases and products. For example, we’re interested in building tools using AI for epistemics, and investigating building bespoke tooling for impactful teams (e.g. EA grantmakers)

Who is on your team? What's your track record on similar projects?

See our team and track record.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails?

1. We fail to grow our general userbase and usage doesn't grow amongst high-impact teams

2. We don't find evidence for uncertain parts of our theory of change, and fail to execute a pivot to more impactful projects.

What other funding are you or your project getting?

So far, we've received $1.1M in funding from Open Philanthropy, and have an application open with SFF. We're seeking more funding to diversify our funding base, extend our runway, and to fund more ambitious experiments.