I started this because I've always hated politics, now, I am helping others openly learn civics & politics through bias-free game-based tools.

@niplav Still have to get my collaborators' data.

@saulmunn A quick n' dirty analysis automated via Claude on my six datapoints gives me 7.28 ± 2.89 hours of sleep after Orexin-A, 8.09 ± 0.75 after Placebo (i.e. Cohen's d of -0.386) at a p-value 0.556.

I've been following Dan's work for years and think this could go pretty far with agents.

The state of the art in collating followup studies is extremely poor for stupid reasons and so easy to beat.

He's not naive about the technical issues nor the likely reception in academia and has some cool ideas for getting the results into actual discussions.

@charbel-raphael

Hi Charbel,

I fundamentally disagree. Your assessment conflates passive reach with active comprehension.

You cannot build deep intuition for Reinforcement Learning or agentic behavior via TikTok, just as you cannot replace flight simulators with YouTube videos. There is a massive pedagogical difference between watching a creator talk about alignment and personally struggling against a misalignment failure mode in a simulation. The former creates views, the latter creates understanding.

Moreover, it is concerning that you are downvoting this project while citing your own competing venture as the "dominant" alternative. Given that your project roadmap implies seeking significant future funding to scale your specific strategy, aggressively downvoting alternative methodologies looks less like community moderation and more like an attempt to monopolize the "AI Awareness" vertical.

Solving the engagement gap requires a diverse portfolio of strategies (interactive games, simulations, and videos), not a zero sum fight to establish your personal medium as the only valid approach.

Congrats on getting the grant/ those numbers!

I wonder if it makes sense to translate those clips into a few languages automatically?

I personally think that this project deserved more. Those numbers are quite impressive, and the Transformer newsletter is a critical epistemic infrastructure for the community.

I think the numbers highlighted are pretty impressive (~$570 per GWWC pledge and ~$1700 per MARS fellow), and I think marketing is important and would benefit many organisations.

From what I see, GWWC estimates the average 10% pledger donates $100,000 over the course of their pledge, and they secured 2 pledges from the EA Netherlands campaign alone—so this is already worth it for this. I would give them money.

Hi, interesting proposal. I've downvoted because I think this awareness strategy is dominated by alternatives like producing short YouTube/TikTok videos explaining the same concepts, which could reach comparable audiences at a fraction of the cost. Here is an analysis of our YouTube strategy for example:  https://manifund.org/projects/scaling-ai-safety-awareness-via-content-creators

Congrats on getting the grant!

I'd be curious which papers or agenda you see as closest to your theoretical framework/broader theory of impact. The project summary mentions preliminary results at AAAI, NeurIPS, CAV—could you link to those?

Congrats on getting the grant. Progress is cool. We need more progress.

I'm sure you have already heard of this, but AI will be the source of most of the progress over the coming years, so curious how you'll approach AI's role in progress, if at all.

Also, it might be interesting to test a strategy for 15 days that involves reaching out to and collaborating with big YouTubers to drive growth. This is what CeSIA did, and we got multiple videos with more than 1M views like this without even being YouTubers ourselves (we just acted as consultants). See a write-up of the strategy here: https://manifund.org/projects/scaling-ai-safety-awareness-via-content-creators

In our first SF batch, we worked with companies like Andon Labs, Lucid Computing, and Workshop Labs, --> What was the counterfactual impact?

Ka Wang is a great multi-disciplinary renaissance man, it would be great to see where this project goes. Reading this project breakdown tells me this project has a potential net positive impact on the general space of human compatible AI reasoning. I am writing without any conflict of interest, this is a comment to support any prospective supporter here.

Quite often when I meet some impressive new person in safety, it turns out they got in / went pro through PIBBSS. I'm particuarly excited to see how their fellows' conceptual work goes during the theory revival.

AFAIK they usually only have <1 year runway despite running a long-term hits-based strat. I'd like to see what they can do with more freedom.

Bonus: They have matching funds with SFF right now.

CoI: I've volunteered on the admissions team in the past.

Approving this project as part of ACX Grants, and making a small donation in support as well! I haven't donated a kidney (and am on the fence about whether I will someday), but am very inspired by those who have. And I do remember, back from my college days, struggling to gain weight so that I could qualify for double red blood cell donations -- so the core idea here resonates personally.

The cost-effectiveness figures presented are also compelling (though I haven't independently verified them), and I'm broadly impressed with Daniela's track record with other projects as well. Best of luck to Project Donor!

What progress have you made since your last update?

1. I have applied to two mini-grants -- The Pollination Project and The Awesome Foundation. I have also applied for a grant through EA Funds.

2. I have also pulled together a somewhat formal team to work on this project - David Reinstein and Ashley Meader from The Unjournal.

3. We still want to raise more funds for the tournament prize pool so we are putting together a shortlist of sample decision-relevant questions and the ways they could influence decisions in the animal movement to use for promo materials to attract donors

What are your next steps?

We aim to finish writing up the promo material in the next two weeks. We will also start vetting the current list of questions we have crowdsourced from the wider animal movement.

Is there anything others could help you with?

1. If you come across a highly decision-relevant question, send it our way!

2. If you know of someone who would be keen to donate to this project, please send them our way too!
   

This project is perfect. We need one place to any founder or them survey never stop and for all youth people . Mood locker here: https://manifund.org/projects/mood-locker-deep-tech-emotional-infrastructure-for-the-global-south-ikjhtkxuyje?tab=bids

Please can review this project a little or not. Thanks allow me up here: https://manifund.org/projects/mood-locker-deep-tech-emotional-infrastructure-for-the-global-south-ikjhtkxuyje

@niplav Thanks for the update! Will ping you in late-January if I haven’t heard anything by then.

Yeah, would love to see any intermediate data as it comes: saulsmunn at gmail

Looking forward to the results!

Hard vouch for the Seldon team, Finn and Esben are extremely fast moving with an in-depth understanding of the AI Safety For-profit space.

Plausibly mid February in case something comes up. We need to balance the downsides from being sleep deprived with collecting meaningful data, sorry it's taking so long.

I started this because I've always hated politics, now, I am helping others openly learn civics & politics through bias-free game-based tools.

@niplav Still have to get my collaborators' data.

@saulmunn A quick n' dirty analysis automated via Claude on my six datapoints gives me 7.28 ± 2.89 hours of sleep after Orexin-A, 8.09 ± 0.75 after Placebo (i.e. Cohen's d of -0.386) at a p-value 0.556.

I've been following Dan's work for years and think this could go pretty far with agents.

The state of the art in collating followup studies is extremely poor for stupid reasons and so easy to beat.

He's not naive about the technical issues nor the likely reception in academia and has some cool ideas for getting the results into actual discussions.

@charbel-raphael

Hi Charbel,

I fundamentally disagree. Your assessment conflates passive reach with active comprehension.

You cannot build deep intuition for Reinforcement Learning or agentic behavior via TikTok, just as you cannot replace flight simulators with YouTube videos. There is a massive pedagogical difference between watching a creator talk about alignment and personally struggling against a misalignment failure mode in a simulation. The former creates views, the latter creates understanding.

Moreover, it is concerning that you are downvoting this project while citing your own competing venture as the "dominant" alternative. Given that your project roadmap implies seeking significant future funding to scale your specific strategy, aggressively downvoting alternative methodologies looks less like community moderation and more like an attempt to monopolize the "AI Awareness" vertical.

Solving the engagement gap requires a diverse portfolio of strategies (interactive games, simulations, and videos), not a zero sum fight to establish your personal medium as the only valid approach.

Congrats on getting the grant/ those numbers!

I wonder if it makes sense to translate those clips into a few languages automatically?

I personally think that this project deserved more. Those numbers are quite impressive, and the Transformer newsletter is a critical epistemic infrastructure for the community.

I think the numbers highlighted are pretty impressive (~$570 per GWWC pledge and ~$1700 per MARS fellow), and I think marketing is important and would benefit many organisations.

From what I see, GWWC estimates the average 10% pledger donates $100,000 over the course of their pledge, and they secured 2 pledges from the EA Netherlands campaign alone—so this is already worth it for this. I would give them money.

Hi, interesting proposal. I've downvoted because I think this awareness strategy is dominated by alternatives like producing short YouTube/TikTok videos explaining the same concepts, which could reach comparable audiences at a fraction of the cost. Here is an analysis of our YouTube strategy for example:  https://manifund.org/projects/scaling-ai-safety-awareness-via-content-creators

Congrats on getting the grant!

I'd be curious which papers or agenda you see as closest to your theoretical framework/broader theory of impact. The project summary mentions preliminary results at AAAI, NeurIPS, CAV—could you link to those?

Congrats on getting the grant. Progress is cool. We need more progress.

I'm sure you have already heard of this, but AI will be the source of most of the progress over the coming years, so curious how you'll approach AI's role in progress, if at all.

Also, it might be interesting to test a strategy for 15 days that involves reaching out to and collaborating with big YouTubers to drive growth. This is what CeSIA did, and we got multiple videos with more than 1M views like this without even being YouTubers ourselves (we just acted as consultants). See a write-up of the strategy here: https://manifund.org/projects/scaling-ai-safety-awareness-via-content-creators

In our first SF batch, we worked with companies like Andon Labs, Lucid Computing, and Workshop Labs, --> What was the counterfactual impact?

Ka Wang is a great multi-disciplinary renaissance man, it would be great to see where this project goes. Reading this project breakdown tells me this project has a potential net positive impact on the general space of human compatible AI reasoning. I am writing without any conflict of interest, this is a comment to support any prospective supporter here.

Quite often when I meet some impressive new person in safety, it turns out they got in / went pro through PIBBSS. I'm particuarly excited to see how their fellows' conceptual work goes during the theory revival.

AFAIK they usually only have <1 year runway despite running a long-term hits-based strat. I'd like to see what they can do with more freedom.

Bonus: They have matching funds with SFF right now.

CoI: I've volunteered on the admissions team in the past.

Approving this project as part of ACX Grants, and making a small donation in support as well! I haven't donated a kidney (and am on the fence about whether I will someday), but am very inspired by those who have. And I do remember, back from my college days, struggling to gain weight so that I could qualify for double red blood cell donations -- so the core idea here resonates personally.

The cost-effectiveness figures presented are also compelling (though I haven't independently verified them), and I'm broadly impressed with Daniela's track record with other projects as well. Best of luck to Project Donor!

What progress have you made since your last update?

1. I have applied to two mini-grants -- The Pollination Project and The Awesome Foundation. I have also applied for a grant through EA Funds.

2. I have also pulled together a somewhat formal team to work on this project - David Reinstein and Ashley Meader from The Unjournal.

3. We still want to raise more funds for the tournament prize pool so we are putting together a shortlist of sample decision-relevant questions and the ways they could influence decisions in the animal movement to use for promo materials to attract donors

What are your next steps?

We aim to finish writing up the promo material in the next two weeks. We will also start vetting the current list of questions we have crowdsourced from the wider animal movement.

Is there anything others could help you with?

1. If you come across a highly decision-relevant question, send it our way!

2. If you know of someone who would be keen to donate to this project, please send them our way too!
   

This project is perfect. We need one place to any founder or them survey never stop and for all youth people . Mood locker here: https://manifund.org/projects/mood-locker-deep-tech-emotional-infrastructure-for-the-global-south-ikjhtkxuyje?tab=bids

Please can review this project a little or not. Thanks allow me up here: https://manifund.org/projects/mood-locker-deep-tech-emotional-infrastructure-for-the-global-south-ikjhtkxuyje

@niplav Thanks for the update! Will ping you in late-January if I haven’t heard anything by then.

Yeah, would love to see any intermediate data as it comes: saulsmunn at gmail

Looking forward to the results!

Hard vouch for the Seldon team, Finn and Esben are extremely fast moving with an in-depth understanding of the AI Safety For-profit space.

Plausibly mid February in case something comes up. We need to balance the downsides from being sleep deprived with collecting meaningful data, sorry it's taking so long.