🌸
Scott Alexander

@ScottAlexander

accredited investor

astralcodexten.substack.com
$99,015.19total balance
$96,648charity balance
$0cash balance

$2,367 in pending offers

Investments

OPTICbought $9.03K @ $9.2K valuation
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksbought $450 @ $450 valuation
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsbought $160 @ $250 valuation
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsbought $1.55K @ $2K valuation
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsbought $254 @ $300 valuation
Comparing forecasting platform accuracybought $674 @ $800 valuation
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingbought $514 @ $600 valuation
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformersbought $63 @ $250 valuation
Impact Assessment of Social Programsbought $500 @ $1K valuation
Crystal Ballin' Podcastbought $289 @ $300 valuation

Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
Manifund Bank6 months agodeposit+9960
Scott Alexander6 months agocash to charity transfer4389
Manifund Bank6 months agodeposit+86688
OPTICabout 1 year agouser to user trade2022
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsabout 1 year agouser to user trade75
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade732
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade1751
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade100
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksabout 1 year agouser to user trade225
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade105
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsabout 1 year agouser to user trade20
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsabout 1 year agouser to user trade151
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsabout 1 year agouser to user trade219
Crystal Ballin' Podcastabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Crystal Ballin' Podcastabout 1 year agouser to user trade19
Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsabout 1 year agouser to user trade36
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade2101
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsabout 1 year agouser to user trade75
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsabout 1 year agouser to user trade1
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade2101
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsabout 1 year agouser to user trade1360
Crystal Ballin' Podcastabout 1 year agouser to user trade270
OPTICabout 1 year agouser to user trade6083
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskabout 1 year agouser to user trade63
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsabout 1 year agouser to user trade125
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsabout 1 year agouser to user trade10
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade0
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade5
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade5
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade228
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyabout 1 year agouser to user trade267
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade240
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformersabout 1 year agouser to user trade63
OPTICabout 1 year agouser to user trade920
Impact Assessment of Social Programsabout 1 year agouser to user trade500
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingabout 1 year agouser to user trade34
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsabout 1 year agouser to user trade63
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldabout 1 year agouser to user trade104
Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsabout 1 year agouser to user trade6
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsabout 1 year agouser to user trade6
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsabout 1 year agouser to user trade9
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsabout 1 year agouser to user trade1
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsabout 1 year agouser to user trade188
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsabout 1 year agouser to user trade63
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyabout 1 year agouser to user trade1
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskabout 1 year agouser to user trade33
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyabout 1 year agouser to user trade406
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksabout 1 year agouser to user trade225
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsabout 1 year agouser to user trade159
Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Marylandabout 1 year agouser to user trade7500
Manifund Bankabout 1 year agodeposit+31125