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Scott Alexander
@ScottAlexander
accredited investor
$99,015.19total balance
$96,648charity balance
$0cash balance
$2,367 in pending offers
Investments
OPTICbought $9.03K @ $9.2K valuation
Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsbought $42 @ $600 valuation
Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Marylandbought $7.5K @ $7.5K valuation
Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksbought $450 @ $450 valuation
Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsbought $160 @ $250 valuation
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsbought $1.55K @ $2K valuation
Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsbought $254 @ $300 valuation
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskbought $95 @ $125 valuation
Comparing forecasting platform accuracybought $674 @ $800 valuation
Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsbought $300 @ $300 valuation
Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingbought $514 @ $600 valuation
Interpretable Forecasting with Transformersbought $63 @ $250 valuation
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsbought $200 @ $200 valuation
Impact Assessment of Social Programsbought $500 @ $1K valuation
A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldbought $6.89K @ $7K valuation
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsbought $250 @ $250 valuation
Crystal Ballin' Podcastbought $289 @ $300 valuation
Transactions
| For | Date | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manifund Bank | 9 months ago | deposit | +9960 |
| Scott Alexander | 10 months ago | cash to charity transfer | 4389 |
| Manifund Bank | 10 months ago | deposit | +86688 |
| OPTIC | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 2022 |
| Telegram bot for Manifold Markets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 75 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 732 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 1751 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 100 |
| Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 225 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 105 |
| Telegram bot for Manifold Markets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 20 |
| Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 151 |
| Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 219 |
| Crystal Ballin' Podcast | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Crystal Ballin' Podcast | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 19 |
| Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 36 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 2101 |
| Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 75 |
| Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 1 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 2101 |
| Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 1360 |
| Crystal Ballin' Podcast | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 270 |
| OPTIC | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 6083 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 63 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 125 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 10 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 0 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 5 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 5 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 228 |
| Comparing forecasting platform accuracy | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 267 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 240 |
| Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 63 |
| OPTIC | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 920 |
| Impact Assessment of Social Programs | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 500 |
| Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 34 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 63 |
| A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 104 |
| Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 6 |
| Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 6 |
| Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 9 |
| Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 1 |
| Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 188 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 63 |
| Comparing forecasting platform accuracy | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 1 |
| Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 33 |
| Comparing forecasting platform accuracy | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 406 |
| Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 225 |
| Telegram bot for Manifold Markets | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 159 |
| Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland | over 1 year ago | user to user trade | 7500 |
| Manifund Bank | over 1 year ago | deposit | +31125 |