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Crystal Ballin' Podcast

$2,500raised
$300valuation
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Project description

"Crystal Ballin'" is a fortnightly podcast that delves into the world of forecasting and prediction markets, covering a wide range of topics including politics, economics, sports, and entertainment. We are avid forecasters who aim to make sure each episode features insightful discussions and interviews with experts, analysts, and enthusiasts who offer their unique perspectives on the latest trends and innovations in forecasting and prediction markets.

The show explores the different techniques and approaches used in forecasting, ranging from statistical models to artificial intelligence and machine learning. Listeners can learn about the various applications of forecasting, including predicting the outcomes of elections, stock market fluctuations, and consumer trends.

The podcast also covers the emerging field of prediction markets, where individuals can buy and sell shares in the likelihood of certain events occurring. "Crystal Ballin'" provides a deep dive into the inner workings of prediction markets, examining the factors that affect their accuracy and reliability. The show explores the ethical implications of prediction markets, discussing the potential for manipulation and abuse. Additionally, the podcast offers a historical perspective on forecasting and prediction markets, tracing their development and evolution over time.

Listeners can expect to gain a better understanding of how forecasting and prediction markets work, and how they can be used to make informed decisions in a wide range of fields. The show provides insights and analysis that can be useful for investors, business leaders, policymakers, and anyone interested in staying ahead of the curve. With its engaging format and thoughtful commentary, "Crystal Ballin'" offers a unique and insightful look into the world of forecasting and prediction markets.

In addition to exploring existing prediction markets, "Crystal Ballin'" also delves into the creation of new markets and the process of establishing resolution criteria. The show may feature discussions on the different types of prediction markets that can be created, such as binary or multi-outcome markets, and the factors that should be considered when designing a new market.

Once a prediction market is created, the podcast may engage in lively debates on the resolution criteria that should be used to determine the outcome of the market. This can be a complex and nuanced process, as there are often multiple factors to consider and different perspectives to weigh. The show may explore the different approaches to resolution criteria, including using objective measures such as vote counts or statistical data, as well as subjective criteria such as expert opinions or crowd consensus.

"Crystal Ballin'" may also discuss the role of market makers in prediction markets, and how they can influence the outcomes of markets through their pricing and trading strategies. The show may examine the ethical implications of market making, and explore the ways in which these strategies can either promote or hinder the accuracy of prediction markets.

By exploring the creation of markets and the establishment of resolution criteria, "Crystal Ballin'" offers listeners a comprehensive understanding of the prediction market landscape. The show's engaging format and thoughtful discussions provide insights and analysis that can be useful for anyone interested in the world of forecasting and prediction markets.

The show will frequently invite guests from the prediction market community to share their insights and expertise. The guests on "Crystal Ballin'" may include analysts, researchers, investors, and other professionals who work in or closely with prediction markets. These guests bring a wealth of knowledge and experience to the show, and can provide unique perspectives on the latest trends and developments in the field. Through engaging interviews and discussions, guests on "Crystal Ballin'" can offer listeners a deep dive into the nuances of prediction markets, including their strengths, weaknesses, and ethical implications. They may share case studies and real-world examples of prediction markets in action, and offer practical advice on how to make the most of these markets.

What is your track record on similar projects?

Podcast hosted by Brian T. Edwards (@bte) and Devon Schmidt (@DesTiny)

How will you spend your funding?

We will purchase 3 Shure SM7B Microphones and a Mac Mini to capture highest quality audio and facilitate storage and editing. Total production costs approximately $2500.

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Brian T. Edwards

about 1 year ago

1. How much money have you spent so far? Have you gotten more funding from other sources? Do you need more funding?

Spent all the funds so far to get the necessary equipment and software. We have not yet sought additional funding but as we release more episodes we plan to seek sponsors. Certainly we would like to be able to issue more impact certificates but since I sold all of my equity when I listed the project that doesn't seem to be a possibility. I may submit a general proposal to the Manifund if I think it has a good chance of getting support.

2. How is it going?

I just published the first episode at the end of August, an interview with Michael Wheatley (aka Michael's bot laboratory). The first interview went very well and Michael has agreed to join me as a co-host. I have also recruited firstuserhere to be a producer. We have a second episode lined up for next week and hope to release new episodes at least fortnightly from now on. 

3. How well has your project gone compared to where you expected it to be at this point? (Score from 1-10, 10 = Better than expected)

3

4. Are there any remaining ways you need help, besides more funding?

We need a steady stream of reliable guests with interesting things to say about prediction markets and forecasting. Had some difficulty with this but expect it to get easier as we release more episodes. 

5. Any other thoughts or feedback?

Podcasts are much harder than I thought. Certainly a lot more work than a blog. I am determined to master this medium and I hope to create something the ACX readers can appreciate and learn from.

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Brian T. Edwards

about 1 year ago

I assessed myself at a 3 because I had very high hopes at the start that I would be able to do at least 3-5 episodes by now and I am very disappointed in myself.

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Brian T. Edwards

over 1 year ago

I really want to sell @James the $1 share but I cannot because I own $0. Maybe one of the investors would be willing to part with $1??

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Brian T. Edwards

over 1 year ago

The first episode will cover the controversial mis-resolution of the Salem Center's Covid market.

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

why does it keep doing that

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

Any extra funding will be used for increased quality equipment and eventual cameras!

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

Any extra funding will be used for increased quality equipment and eventual cameras!

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Brian T. Edwards

over 1 year ago

@domenic Yes, I have extensive experience creating content. I have published well over 500 blog posts, most as Sr mHealth Analyst at iMedicalApps.com (https://www.imedicalapps.com/author/brian-edwards/) In 2013 as a Fellow at Startup Health I created their SUH Insights Reports which they still produce to this day (https://www.startuphealth.com/insights-reports). As an AI Analyst at Chilmark Research I wrote a 60 page report on the use of Natural Language Processing in healthcare and also produced multiple webinars. I have also dabbled a bit recently with Substack (https://intellectualarbitrage.substack.com) but have been unhappy with what I put out so far and want dedicate more time to it. I am also the top market creator on Manifold, well #2 behind memestiny, so #1 of people creating real markets and not meme markets. (https://manifold.markets/leaderboards)

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

It sent it twice for some reason

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

I know Brian has done a lot of stuff related to this kinda stuff as he actually has his own blog. Though I think he'd be better at giving his background!

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

I know Brian has done a lot of stuff related to this kinda stuff as he actually has his own blog. Though I think he'd be better at giving his background!

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Domenic Denicola

over 1 year ago

Hi folks, can you give more information on "What is your track record on similar projects?" Have you hosted a podcast before? Done interviews or journalism before? Done any regular-output project (e.g. blogging, column-writing, YouTube videos, ...) on a regular basis before?

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DesTiny

over 1 year ago

10/10 idea