OPTIC

Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland

Telegram bot for Manifold Markets

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets

Add additional social incentives to bet YES to publicly signal value/support/belief and NO to signal the opposite.

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets

An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets

Crystal Ballin' Podcast

New fortnightly podcast on all things prediction markets

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards

Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Comparing forecasting platform accuracy

Impact Assessment of Social Programs

Verifying and Quantifying the Outcomes of Nonprofits

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors

Promoting forecasts in order to help college choose their field of study, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk

Evaluating whether forecasts of earthquake risk lead people to take steps to prepare

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

Working towards GAAP For Impact Markets

Interpretable Forecasting with Transformers

Make accurate, well-calibrated, and honest predictions with large language models.

Collaborative Resolution of Political Controversies

Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risks

Forecasting GCRs is hard. How can we do it better, and how much better is that?

Multiplayer RootClaim

Allowing prediction market participants to construct, share & clone prediction models

GradeFact

Credit scores for predictions made by news, media, public figures to keep them accountable

Base Rate Times

Like The Economist meets Metaculus

Haruspex [Forecasting Competition Platform]

Mobile platform for some forecasting games

Predicting Replication in Academic Economics

Replicate one year of the AER, test robustness, and see if it's predictable.

Implement a Small-Group Futarchy App

Decision markets for ad hoc group decision-making

Deploy an already built prediction website

For a smaller language - Bulgarian

Make forecasting fun again

Devise and execute fun/visible/viral forecasting engagement projects

Forecasting Knowledge to Brazil [and other Portuguese-speaking countries]

Organizing, translating and writing what we know [and forecast] about forecasting, in order to lower the entry barrier to a country of significant influence in the Global South and a long track of international cooperation

Can communication between contributors improve aggregate forecasting accuracy?

Previous research says no, but that research is incomplete.

Deriving Benefit-Cost Ratio of Outcomes

Calculating the benefit of outcomes on GiveWell and Impact Genome Registry