This update is in the format requested by the people evaluating the projects, otherwise it may overlap a lot with (and be directly copied from) the one below, apart from having more up to date data
1. How much money have you spent so far? Have you gotten more funding from other sources? Do you need more funding?
I have only spent about $50 on the domain name + analytics software, and I haven't gotten any funding from other sources. This is as expected as the funding was just to compensate me for doing it.
I'm not actively seeking any more funding at the moment, although I "wouldn't say no". I do have plans to continue this project (described in section 4). As with the original project this is something I plan to do in my own time, but would do a lot faster if I got some more funding or other encouragement.
2. How is the project going? (a few paragraphs)
Some links to the project:
This was written on 2023-08-30
The website was released on 2023-08-10
The Chrome extension was released on 2023-08-17
I am using Datadog Real User Monitoring for the website analytics, and the Chrome developer dashboard for the extension analytics. Some limitations of this:
Datadog gets blocked by a lot of privacy settings, including using Brave as your browser
Sessions in the Chrome extension don't get counted in Datadog
I know the Chrome dashboard data is about 48 hours delayed
Since the announcement post, there have been 465 user sessions on the website. Some of these are me, so excluding all the UK ones to get a lower bound there are 403. This works out to just under 1 per hour. The average session duration is apparently 13.6 mins, which seems high to me. It's likely this is including a lot of idle time so maybe this isn't a very good metric but the session count seems reliable
16 people (excluding me) have placed bets via the calculator (i.e. entering their api key and clicking the "place bet" button). This surprisingly low to me, it's possible people prefer to just copy paste the amount into Manifold. The total amount bet (again excluding me) is M3450
For the Chrome extension: there are 63 installs and 6 uninstalls in the developer dashboard, and around 20-30 daily users for the past week. It's worth noting I made a market on how many people would install it so these numbers may be inflated slightly (probably not though 😌)
Aside from looking at the analytics, which may show people who try it once and think it's kind of cool but don't use it again, I know of about 5 people who clearly use it "a lot" and have messaged me about it on multiple occasions (and none are people I have personally coerced into using it)
I'm happy with how the calculator itself turned out, I now use it myself almost every time I place a bet on Manifold. When I was working on it there were times when I thought it wouldn't be possible to get a nice clean version of it working because of the loan system, or because the api couldn't support what I was trying to do, so I'm glad those problems were overcome.
It's also true that getting this funding was counterfactual for actually finishing the project as it ended up taking much longer than expected. Without it I probably would have either given up or made a much more pared down version just for myself.
I'm pretty happy with the amount of usage it has received so far, especially since the market on the chrome extension took off. I'm also glad there weren't any major bugs and the feedback has been generally positive.
If I could do this over again the main thing I'd do differently would just be trying to get it out sooner. As you can see from the commit history, I basically put it on the back burner for a few months when I got busy with other stuff. There hasn't been much time to iterate on it or just let it spread by word of mouth and settle into people's workflows.
3. How well has your project gone compared to where you expected it to be at this point? (Score from 1-10, 10 = Better than expected)
I would say 8.5. I'm particularly happy that it is getting some significant usage, the big fear when putting out any project is that no-one will use it.
Secretly I hoped I would actually go way beyond the project description and have written a fully fledged portfolio management system by now. But, it's good enough to have something simpler that people use.
4. Are there any remaining ways you need help, besides more funding?
As alluded to above and below, I am planning to continue working on the successor to this project on the back burner, with the next steps roughly being:
Write up some maths I did as part of this as a forum post or paper
Make a more fully featured version separate to this calculator (with features summarised in this comment, the main one being "accounting for several estimates at the same time, and remembering previous bets")
Make a version for Polymarket and/or other platforms
Anything that would help with these would be useful, including:
Telling me you would use these things, which would make me do it faster
More funding, which would also make me do it faster
Sharing your relevant expertise and/or any pitching me on going in a certain direction