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Nathan Young

@NathanYoung

Forecaster and Developer

https://twitter.com/NathanpmYoung
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About Me

Forecaster at the Swift Centre. Building tools like Estimaker.app and Viewpoints.xyz . Let's make better decisions!

Projects

Outgoing donations

Comments

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Nathan Young

3 months ago

I asked @wasabipesto to sign up here because calibration city is something I wanted to exist and they built it! So I wanted to reward them for that.

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

Thanks for the feedback.


What do you think about "What are this project's goals" section now?

On estimaker, thank you for the advice.

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

This feels good to me. I have done a little work with Ezra and I trust him to make good markets. Ezra, I thin you've got some markets up already. Could you link them?

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

What do you think would cound as a massive success from you lot?

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

Yo @Austin how come manifold doesn't embed?

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

Will they manufacture 20+ antiviral candidates? @Brian-Wang when would a good deadline be? https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-panoplia-laboboritories-get-fu

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

So is the key goal here to pass federal legislation?

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

Can you give me some goals where you'd think this was really successful?

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

Hey @vandemonian, how many views are you getting a month at the moment?

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

I think it's really cool that you've posted this here. Feels like helping the ecosystem be better connected.

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

I buy the notion of retroactively sending signals to people who did great work. The community would be healthier, I think if we did this more often.

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Nathan Young

about 1 year ago

It seems plausible to me that this could be really effective in giving some cover for slowing down. Good negotiation requires alternatives if negotiation breaks down. Current the AI orgs are playing ball but I want some pushback if they don't. So I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

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Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

I want this idea to be tested at greater scale. I think if we can build the processes here then other news orgs can use them. This seems like foundational work.

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Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Surely I'd need to put all markets and all probs rather than just one?

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Nathan Young

over 1 year ago

Would you use this personally?

Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
Calibration City2 months agoproject donation10
Manifund Bank3 months agodeposit+10
The Base Rate Times11 months agoproject donation100
VaccinateCAabout 1 year agoproject donation25
Holly Elmore organizing people for a frontier AI moratoriumabout 1 year agoproject donation100
Manifund Bankabout 1 year agodeposit+125
Manifund Bankover 1 year agodeposit+100