Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets

Kenan Schaefkofer

$500raised

$300valuation

Project description

Right now, Manifold users give little attention to the positions or percentages of permanent markets, "stock" markets, or markets on x-risk. There isn't sufficient reason to expect these markets to stay tied to changes in the real world.

This project seeks to add additional weight to investment decisions in permanent markets by issuing a badge to those holding top positions in permanent markets throughout the site. For a given investor the badge might say, "Capitalism's #1 Fan" and "AI Singularity's #3 Critic." This information is a signal to other investors' which they can use to discount or enhance the credence they give them.

The badge indicates useful information to others: They've put their mana where their mouth is to secure those titles. They are “invested” in these subjects, and would enjoy talking about them. They don’t mind other traders associating them with these positions (and it may be useful for others to do so!)

I've prototyped a browser extension called "ManiFans" to test out the idea: https://github.com/kenakofer/manifans-extension, available on desktop for Firefox and Chrome. This demo is functional, and I will continue to polish and seek feedback on it in the coming weeks.

Polarization of the platform is one potential pitfall of providing this aggregated view of a person’s positions. However, as a forecasting platform, Manifold is likely less vulnerable to such effects as compared to social media sites.

Depending on feedback on the extension, and dependent on the Manifold team's feelings, this could become more of a core feature. It would involve a greater time investment and coordination for me to contribute to the core Manifold code.

What is your track record on similar projects?

I am a software engineer by trade, and post my personal projects to GitHub. I have never received grant money for a software project before.

How will you spend your funding?

Personal time investment. I likely would have done this demo work anyways, but getting buy-in would incentivize me to treat the project seriously and work toward a finished product with broad appeal.

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Kenan Schaefkofer

over 2 years ago

Updates:
1. I spent at least 10 hours working on finishing and polishing the browser extension after getting funded. I have gotten no other funding, and I don't see additional funds as being needed.

2. The browser extension is in good working order, and used by a handful of people, including some that I do not know and did not advertise to (I did not advertise at all). It has the basic functionalities that were intended, with many bug fixes and networking optimizations applied since funding. Unfortunately for this extension, the Manifold team has made changes site that discourage the creation of opinion markets and "stonk" markets. Without doing a formal check, it seems to me that usage of such existing markets decreased dramatically since those changes. I applaud the team for making hard calls and cutting features that are not integral to Manifold’s vision.

3. On a 1-10 scale, where 5 was my expectation (and my mode was perhaps 3), I would say this has been a 2.

4. I need no further help, but welcome feedback from anyone interested.

5. I appreciated the chance to receive funding to commit to a short term programming project in a novel area for me. I’m disappointed that it didn’t land in the long tails, but I’m glad I pursued it and am grateful for the funding.

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Kenan Schaefkofer

over 2 years ago

Software updates since getting funded:

Take advantage of Manifold's improved positions API to reduce bandwidth usage
Perform small, more frequent incremental positions updates when possible
Allow ignoring Destiny markets
Allow market makers to customize the Subject, Fan, and Critic text
Face lift to the options interface

I have done almost no public advertising. Judging based on friends that use it, and the Firefox and Chrome store downloads, we have around 6 users.

In the upcoming weeks, I intend to post a bounty on the Discord and/or Manifold to invite users to try it out and give feedback in exchange for mana. This can help improve the extension as well as determine if this is actually a desirable enough feature to warrant further time investment.

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Kenan Schaefkofer

over 2 years ago

Here are the store pages for the extension on Chrome and Firefox. The source code can still be found on Github.