Project description

Right now, Manifold users give little attention to the positions or percentages of permanent markets, "stock" markets, or markets on x-risk. There isn't sufficient reason to expect these markets to stay tied to changes in the real world.

This project seeks to add additional weight to investment decisions in permanent markets by issuing a badge to those holding top positions in permanent markets throughout the site. For a given investor the badge might say, "Capitalism's #1 Fan" and "AI Singularity's #3 Critic." This information is a signal to other investors' which they can use to discount or enhance the credence they give them. 

The badge indicates useful information to others: They've put their mana where their mouth is to secure those titles. They are “invested” in these subjects, and would enjoy talking about them. They don’t mind other traders associating them with these positions (and it may be useful for others to do so!)

I've prototyped a browser extension called "ManiFans" to test out the idea: https://github.com/kenakofer/manifans-extension, available on desktop for Firefox and Chrome. This demo is functional, and I will continue to polish and seek feedback on it in the coming weeks.

Polarization of the platform is one potential pitfall of providing this aggregated view of a person’s positions. However, as a forecasting platform, Manifold is likely less vulnerable to such effects as compared to social media sites.

Depending on feedback on the extension, and dependent on the Manifold team's feelings, this could become more of a core feature. It would involve a greater time investment and coordination for me to contribute to the core Manifold code.

What is your track record on similar projects?

I am a software engineer by trade, and post my personal projects to GitHub. I have never received grant money for a software project before.

How will you spend your funding?

Personal time investment. I likely would have done this demo work anyways, but getting buy-in would incentivize me to treat the project seriously and work toward a finished product with broad appeal.