Want to separate out project #3? I'd happily be the investor
I introduced my own insane scheme to finally get good calibration on very unlikely questions, which I don't think worked all that well though it's hard to tell given that it predictably resolved N/A https://manifold.markets/Tetraspace/100-amplified-odds-details-within-w
Would be very interesting to see how this scheme goes!
about 3 hours ago
Hi Elle, want to message me? I can also consider alternative grants. Seems to me like a 6 month loan would be a much better form of funding for this.
Either way, can you send me a reference we might have in common or your connection to the EA community/AI policy?
1 day ago
@Austin The impactful ones have really been Anki (and memorization heavy stuff like it, to your point) and Notion I might count as a "tool-for-thought" as well, although sort of in a different domain.
I also agree that "making friends" could perhaps benefit from SRS-style thinking. I started an Anki deck for this purpose actually hahaha, but the UX is hard to nail, and I haven't ended up using it much.
I think you make a lot of interesting points. Thanks for sharing.
1 day ago
If you haven't been, there's a lot of discussion about this on ElutherAI.
@joel_bkr Sorry for missing this before! In response to "Could you possibly expand on what roping in dedicated policy advocates would involve?": Yes, looks like writing a policy report, possibly including reasonable policy recommendations, and socializing the report/publishing it in a place that media and policymakers are more likely to see. To be fair, any possible partners would have existing priorities and I can understand the difficulty of finding anyone who has serious time to dedicate to this.
Offering a grant at this point after Vivian reached out to me and told me about a couple of customers for the estimate that are excited to have this sooner rather than later.
None of the possible conflicts of interest really gave me reservations but for the sake of disclosure: Joel and I are friends, and (although Vivian and Richard aren't the direct recipients), Vivian and I collaborate closely, and I am likely to begin working with Richard soon on a related project. As mentioned in my comment below, this estimate is, in fact, something that I might wind up using.
Preemptively pledging $5k for when Greg accepts the transfer and I'm able to add to Joel's existing offer (at which point I'll write up my thoughts in more detail).
2 days ago
@NeelNanda thanks for weighing in! Manifund doesn't have a UK entity set up, unfortunately. One thing that might be possible would be to figure out a donation swap where eg you commit to donating $10k via Givewell UK and some US-based person who was planning on giving to Givewell instead donates $10k to this project, and you both take tax deductions for your respective countries.
@Brent It's not clear to me what successful examples are... which have been impactful for you? I think foreign language and MCATs are two domains where SRS have proven its worth, but outside of that those memorization-heavy domains, the flashcard approach hasn't become popular. It's also damning that most successful people don't rely on SRS, afaict.
I think there's something definitely interesting about the core observation of SRS - "learning happens via repeated exposures to the subject, and we can program that to our benefit." But it also seems to me that "flashcards" are a dead end, UX-wise, given all the research that has gone into them for relatively little adoption. I think there's a lot of space for innovating on other interaction models -- eg in what ways are social feeds like Twitter a spaced repetition system? Or Gmail?
One other random note - for a while, I've wanted a SRS/anki thing that helps me stay on top of my various personal contacts (friends, acquaintances, etc). "Making friends" is a domain which lines up neatly with exponential backoff, I think -- it's easiest to make a friend by spending a lot of time with them in the beginning, and then staying in touch gradually less and less over time.
3 days ago
@Austin Hey Austin! I definitely hold some of the same reservations as you here, and have been similarly skeptical. Yet, I have to admit that a few of them have actually been very impactful on me / the world. I'm curious what you think makes the difference between the projects that succeed and those that don't or if you have more to add there.
This grant falls outside of our more established pathways, but I'm excited to approve it anyways, as a small bet on a people-first funding approach (where I think the regranting mechanism shines).
I'm a bit baseline skeptical of SRS/anki, having seen tools-for-thought people push for it but fairly unsuccessfully -- eg I was very excited for Quantum Country but it doesn't seem to have gotten wider adoption, nor personally helped me very much. However, I would be excited to be wrong here, and it's possible that LLMs change the game enough for there to be a good angle of attack!
Approving this project as in line with our mission of advancing technical AI safety.
Thanks to Vincent for getting this project past its initial funding bar!
3 days ago
I have identified an engineering bottleneck in scaling this approach that I am currently working through. I am going to provisionally accept the project, but may return the funds if I am unable to address this bottleneck within the project timeline.