GiveWell’s mission is to find the charities that deliver the greatest impact per dollar spent to help donors decide where to give. To support this, they publish forecasts on expected grant outcomes. Now, Metaculus and GiveWell invite you to forecast and share your reasoning to help GiveWell help others in a tournament with cash prizes for the winners.
Metaculus will share high-quality comments with GiveWell after the submission deadline. Prizes will be awarded in January 2025.
The current prize pool is as follows:
The max award for a single participating commenter is $1,000
Ten prizes will be distributed as follows:
The 1st place comment wins $300
2nd & third place comments each win $275
The 4th through 10th place comments each receive $200
Donating to this Manifund page will increase the prize pool, in a method decided by the Metaculus team.
Note: Employees of GiveWell, their immediate family members, and those living in the same household are not eligible for prizes.
The Metaculus team is running this forecasting tournament in collaboration with Givewell. Metaculus has run a large number of tournaments in the past — see here for more examples and more details.
Note: this page was quickly set up by @saulmunn, and doesn't necessarily faithfully represent the views of Metaculus.
Leonard Barrett
2 months ago
The tournament closed on January 1. Givewell is currently reviewing the comments generated by forecasters in the tournament and I will update with results once they have selected the top comments.
100% of funds raised will be awarded to tournament winners, consistent with the tournament leaderboard.
Ryan Kidd
4 months ago
I like Metaculus and GiveWell. Incentivising forecasts of charity impact seems like a good way to improve charitable giving.
Austin Chen
5 months ago
Approving this grant; as I wrote on the EA Forum:
This looks awesome! $1k struck me as a pretty modest prize pool given the importance of the questions; I'd love to donate $1k towards increasing this prize, if you all would accept it (or possibly more, if you think it would be useful.)
I'd suggest structuring this as 5 more $200 prizes (or 10 $100 honorable mentions) rather than doubling the existing prizes to $400 -- but really it's up to you, I'd trust your allocations here.
Special thanks to Saul for setting up this page on Metaculus's behalf!