Have you tried Manifold? What do you want your app to solve that Manifold doesn't?
We've started making an app for making predictions on personal future events that matter to you and you friends. In the app you can compete for low brier score clout, and benefit from collective intelligence for better decision making.
Compared to Metaculus, I believe this has greater potential in engaging a wider audience outside of less-wrong readers as it allows users to:
bet on personal matters that directly impact their lives
compete for low brier score clout with their friends instead of internet strangers
If successful, this app would increase the amount of probabilistic reasoning in the world as well as help normalize prediction markets and thus enable more rational decision-making across the board.
We successfully made and published OddsR (https://apps.apple.com/us/app/oddsr-the-dare-game/id1622441703, https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kirabeans.oddsr) together (Liam joined later during the project)
Theo Sechopoulos, MIT CS and CogSci, ex-Google
Liam self-taught 16-year old programmer
This money will be given directly to Liam as a salary/stipend. I have a few other commitments so this funding would really accelerate this app being built, as it will guarantee that Liam who is already working on it is stays committed for the long run over other paid opportunities.
4 months ago
As far as I can tell Manifold doesn't offer the feature of making private predictions that only you and your friends can see and participate in, like for example predicting wether your friend will stick to their diet. These are the kind of predictions we want to support, where unlike Manifold, they are about personal events and only your friends can see and participate in. What we are envisioning is more of a social media centered around personal predictions and less of a public prediction market.