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Forecasting Knowledge to Brazil [and other Portuguese-speaking countries]

ACX mini-grantsForecasting
HRLR avatar

Hugo Roberto Lima Ramirez

Not fundedImpact certificate
$0raised
$5,555valuation

Project description

My goal is to provide access to forecasting knowledge to Portuguese-speaking individuals in Brazil and other countries. To achieve this, I plan to organize this knowledge by determining what information to summarize and what to directly translate, and then proceed to do so. By doing so, I hope to encourage people who are not fluent in English to gain an interest in forecasting and become more aware of the subject. This could lead to them looking for more information, trying their hand at forecasting, participating actively in markets, or even bringing new markets to Brazil.

As a native English speaker or someone who has been reading in English for over a decade, it's easy to forget that there are many people who do not have the same level of accessibility. Even for those who do read in English, the majority may feel tired after reading just a few paragraphs. By providing information in Portuguese, people will find it easier to understand and share on social media.

I believe that by not translating core and interesting articles and papers related to forecasting [and other advanced topics, but shall we try this one first?] into major language groups, we are leaving proverbial $10 bills on the floor. This is a missed opportunity to generate new ideas by making more people aware of these concepts and subjects. Overall, this project will require a relatively low-cost effort with potentially high returns.

What is your track record on similar projects?

We have two people in mind for the first step of our team: I am an experienced translator of English to Portuguese (PT-BR), and have been working in this field for over 10 years. I would be joined by a web and app developer who is particularly focused on UX, ensuring that our material is presented in a user-friendly way that is best adapted to current times. This would be our initial team, but if we receive additional funding, we could add a third team member who would work specifically on digital marketing. This would allow our ideas to spread more quickly and reach a larger audience, creating a faster feedback loop on what we should offer to our readers [or listeners, or viewers, depending on the level this project reaches].

How will you spend your funding?

Our technological needs are minimal: we only require setting up accounts, creating a website, and paying for server fees. At this point, we do not need any advanced features that would drive up costs significantly. Therefore, we estimate that we would require around $100 for these initial expenses. The bulk of the grant would be used to compensate our team for their work in editing and translating the texts, as well as designing their presentation. Our funding goal is set at $5000, which would enable us to dedicate one full day per week to this project for three months. If we receive additional funding, we could allocate more time to the project and potentially speed things up.

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Hugo Roberto Lima Ramirez

about 2 years ago

Hi, Austin! Thanks for the encouraging message! I started translating RPG articles, another nerdy niche. Regarding your questions:
1 - "Can you give a few examples of forecasting content that you'd intend on translating into Portuguese, and an estimate of how many such pieces you would translate using your funding?"
A: Robin Hanson, Zvi, probably a rewording of some LessWrong pieces, definitely Manifold 101. We would, of course, talk to the authors, get their permissions, credit them clearly, all the good practices. We are seeking to build a basic library on forecasting and the fundamentals are the fundamentals in any language. We are very open to suggestions and nothing is set on stone at this point. I will probably create an article translating one or two actual markets, including discussions, evolution of probabilities, outcome.

As for the estimate, I reckon we would be translating at least 35-45,000 words of content. We would also write a few original pieces, try some friendly, non-technical articles, so we would land in the 55-60,000 range at the end. In the end, I imagine we would have about 10-15 technical pieces and another 10-15 lighter ones. Of course, to be really honest, I will probably get excited about the whole thing and disregard the "one day a week" thing and just keep adding content. I just can't do it without funding right now because I wouldn't be able to have a solid day dedicated to it.
2 - "How would you plan on driving traffic or interest to your new website?"
A: We would follow tested ideas here. Gauging level of interest in correlated subjects and focusing on target groups - young, STEM, probably people who have some knowledge of investing in classic markets. With no specific funding for market per se, we would join a few established communities [reddit, facebook, Telegram, Discord, Twitter] and prepare some summaries/interesting posts to get people interested. If we go over the raising goal, we would direct the surplus to an actual marketing campaign, with paid content on iG and Twitter.

It would not be our main concern right now to commercially corner the market because the idea here is not to build a forecast site, but to create the market in the first place! So, having quality material available and an accessible/attractive site would be higher up on the priorities list.

HRLR avatar

Hugo Roberto Lima Ramirez

about 2 years ago

Hi, Austin! Thanks for the encouraging message! I started translating RPG articles, another nerdy niche. Regarding your questions:
1 - "Can you give a few examples of forecasting content that you'd intend on translating into Portuguese, and an estimate of how many such pieces you would translate using your funding?"
A: Robin Hanson, Zvi, probably a rewording of some LessWrong pieces, definitely Manifold 101. We would, of course, talk to the authors, get their permissions, credit them clearly, all the good practices. We are seeking to build a basic library on forecasting and the fundamentals are the fundamentals in any language. We are very open to suggestions and nothing is set on stone at this point. I will probably create an article translating one or two actual markets, including discussions, evolution of probabilities, outcome.

As for the estimate, I reckon we would be translating at least 35-45,000 words of content. We would also write a few original pieces, try some friendly, non-technical articles, so we would land in the 55-60,000 range at the end. In the end, I imagine we would have about 10-15 technical pieces and another 10-15 lighter ones. Of course, to be really honest, I will probably get excited about the whole thing and disregard the "one day a week" thing and just keep adding content. I just can't do it without funding right now because I wouldn't be able to have a solid day dedicated to it.
2 - "How would you plan on driving traffic or interest to your new website?"
A: We would follow tested ideas here. Gauging level of interest in correlated subjects and focusing on target groups - young, STEM, probably people who have some knowledge of investing in classic markets. With no specific funding for market per se, we would join a few established communities [reddit, facebook, Telegram, Discord, Twitter] and prepare some summaries/interesting posts to get people interested. If we go over the raising goal, we would direct the surplus to an actual marketing campaign, with paid content on iG and Twitter.

It would not be our main concern right now to commercially corner the market because the idea here is not to build a forecast site, but to create the market in the first place! So, having quality material available and an accessible/attractive site would be higher up on the priorities list.

Austin avatar

Austin Chen

about 2 years ago

Hi Hugo, I really appreciate that you're trying to bring forecasting to a wider audience via translations (I used to scanlate manga from Japanese to English, haha). A couple questions for you:

  • Can you give a few examples of forecasting content that you'd intend on translating into Portuguese, and an estimate of how many such pieces you would translate using your funding?

  • How would you plan on driving traffic or interest to your new website?