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Aaron Lehmann

@aaronl

accredited investor

-$0total balance
$0charity balance
$0cash balance

$0 in pending offers

Investments

Comparing forecasting platform accuracybought $356 @ $52.6M valuation
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsbought $94 @ $28.3M valuation

Comments

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Aaron Lehmann

12 months ago

I'm curious to learn more about the second primary outcome, "measure information retrieval + architecture tweaks vs crowd performance on prediction markets". This sounds like the main tie-in to forecasting. Is the idea to predict the probability of an event using GPT-3 (either by asking directly or extracting probabilities in a lower-level way) and compare the accuracy of these predictions to prediction markets?