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Aaron Lehmann

@aaronl

accredited investor

$500total balance
$500charity balance
$0cash balance

$0 in pending offers

Outgoing donations

Investments

Comparing forecasting platform accuracybought $356 @ $52.6M valuation
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsbought $94 @ $28.3M valuation

Comments

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Aaron Lehmann

8 months ago

The cause areas have a big emphasis on animal welfare, which isn't something that ranks very high up in my personal moral calculus. My top priorities mostly fall under the "global health and wellbeing" category, which admittedly is represented on the site, but only at the same level of prominence as e.g. "insect welfare in farmed, wild, and research context".

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Aaron Lehmann

8 months ago

A big +1 for @Austin's comments here. Zvi is a very thoughful and prolific writer with an intense focus on identifying problems in the world and thinking through ways to mitigate them. It's exciting to see him put some of these thoughts into practice and I'm optimistic about what he'll be able to accomplish.

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Aaron Lehmann

8 months ago

This is fascinating work and I'm excited to see it happen. I think this is a tough one to fund with impact certificates, though, because the marginal impact from providing funding seems relatively low. The prospective grantee expects to do this work whether they receive funding or not, so the main value grants would add is submission to more prestegious journals.

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Aaron Lehmann

8 months ago

I think this is a compelling concept, but ultimately assessing impact of a research area is at least somewhat subjective, if not speculative. I found that the causes promoted by Effective Thesis didn't line up well with my own priorities, so I decided against funding this project. However, I wish them the best and support their overall mission.

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Aaron Lehmann

over 1 year ago

I'm curious to learn more about the second primary outcome, "measure information retrieval + architecture tweaks vs crowd performance on prediction markets". This sounds like the main tie-in to forecasting. Is the idea to predict the probability of an event using GPT-3 (either by asking directly or extracting probabilities in a lower-level way) and compare the accuracy of these predictions to prediction markets?

Transactions

ForDateTypeAmount
80,000 Hoursabout 2 months agoproject donation75
Giving What We Can2 months agoproject donation25
Lightcone Infrastructure3 months agoproject donation100
Manifund Bank3 months agodeposit+200
Manifund Bank8 months agodeposit+500
Manifund Bankabout 1 year agowithdraw691
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsabout 1 year agouser to user trade+1
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsabout 1 year agouser to user trade+188
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsabout 1 year agouser to user trade+63
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyabout 1 year agouser to user trade+1
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskabout 1 year agouser to user trade+33
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyabout 1 year agouser to user trade+406
Manifund Bankover 1 year agowithdraw674
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsover 1 year agouser to user trade83
Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsover 1 year agouser to user trade200
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsover 1 year agouser to user trade150
Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskover 1 year agouser to user trade130
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyover 1 year agouser to user trade507
Comparing forecasting platform accuracyover 1 year agouser to user trade256
Manifund Bankover 1 year agodeposit+2000