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Predict on random markets - Manifold tool

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$1,500valuation
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Project summary

One-liner: Provide a tool that shows random Manifold markets and asks the user for a prediction. Focus on usability.

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Concept: The user is provided a Manifold market. They make their prediction. The market probability is shown. Then the user is allowed to bet on the market.

For reference, a minimum viable product may be found here: https://oddball-pi.vercel.app/newest. (This has not been created by me.)

This project takes the concept and improves on the execution.

What are this project's goals and how will you achieve them?

The aim is to provide a complete tool, working as standalone or integrated to Manifold.

A list indicating features a complete version would have:

  • You see the market title+description

  • Good UI

  • Keeping track of your numeric predictions and how good they've been

  • Customizable display of meta-data and comments

  • Customizable time limits for making these predictions + other gamifying (e.g. "how many predictions you've done?")

  • Customize markets shown to you, e.g. by tags

  • (In case of large userbase: collecting feedback on "do you want to see more/less of this type of markets" + recommendation algorithm)

How will this funding be used?

Compensation for my time and work. There may be small expenses from having a website up.

Who is on your team and what's your track record on similar projects?

The team currently consists of me only. (I'm open to others joining and contributing.)

I have decent programming skills accumulated over a few years. However, I have not worked on similar software projects before.

What are the most likely causes and outcomes if this project fails? (premortem)

  • I lack the technical expertise to deliver the product

  • I lack the time/energy/motivation, failing to deliver the product

  • There is a lack of users, so that it makes little sense to maintain and improve the product -> there is a lack of users -> the product is not maintained or improved -> ...

I note that while I have plenty of free time during December, I will be busier starting from January.

What other funding are you or your project getting?


None.

🐯

Loppukilpailija

11 months ago

I created an application for this. You can see a screenshot below. Supports essential features - e.g. allows logging predictions.

Thanks to Isaac King for allowing me to build this project on top of his code-base, it allowed me to get started. He deserves a portion of the Shapley value.

You can get the code here. (It might require a bit of fiddling around to make it work due to some files being in .gitignore, though.)

The bad news: I have not hosted it anywhere. (I lack the knowledge and, currently, the spoons. I'd very much appreciate it if someone else would do that, but I don't expect that to happen.) Thought I'd still share the update.

FoldyOfficial avatar

Manifold Markets

11 months ago

December 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 100, 0, 0, 0, 0, 100

Median Valuation: 0

David Chee: I thought something like this already existed? Also my understanding is this is something that would be extremely quick and easy for a Manifold dev to set up. Valuation would go up though with some sort of track record and gamification element.

James: Project is not launched or accessible so 0 impact.

SG: It seems they haven't released anything yet.

Rachel: Seems to have some of the same problems that the old swipe interface did—people don’t want to bet on most markets. And I’d think that if you would be willing to bet on almost any market, wouldn’t you still prefer to bet on markets that suit your interests, so isn’t the feed still a better discovery mechanism? The hiding the probability does seem like a useful feature, though I think that would be better as an optional mode on the main site.

Inga Wei: Unsure of how useful this is

Austin: I appreciated seeing the demo of this tool at demo day! I wish you had a link up so we could have played with it ourselves and given feedback. My general advice is to “ship early, ship often” — as a builder, it’s easy to get stuck endlessly polishing your work, but the feedback you get from users is a lot more valuable and helps guide you.

The other thing (I think I mentioned during demo day) is that improving the design of your work would go a long way towards convincing people to give your product a try. The bar for UI quality is fairly high among consumer apps nowadays; I’d recommend https://www.refactoringui.com/ as one resource that helps a lot with honing your skills.

🐯

Loppukilpailija

12 months ago

Update:

  • I have a demo with basic functionalities up.

  • I realize that I asked for way too much funding - this was much easier to create than I expected. (Not sure what to do with the post now.)

Will give a more substantive update a bit later.