5

News through prediction markets

$499raised
$500,000funding goal
$500valuation
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Moonshot bet on mainstreaming prediction markets

  • The Base Rate Times is an early-stage news company that prominently incorporates prediction markets into its coverage.

  • Our ambition is to become a mainstream media source, mirroring the success of FiveThirtyEight in popularising prediction polls.

  • Think “like 538, but for prediction markets”!

10x solution to fake news & vague verbiage

  • For example, one headline reads: “German spy chief sees no 'cracks' in Putin system”. Another contradicts: “Putin 'dead man walking,' former CIA chief says”.

  • By contrast, multiple prediction markets all show Putin >90% likely to stay in power (as neatly summarized on BRT).

  • Glancing at a single chart of forecasts is more informative than reading ten articles.

Mainstream headlines optimise for storytelling, not accuracy

  • For example: “Taiwan braces for China's fury over Pelosi visit”. Great clickbait, but ambiguous about the risk’s magnitude.

  • By contrast, BRT’s headline: “China-Taiwan conflict risk 14%, up 2x after Pelosi visit”.

  • This is an actionable insight - it can inform your expected value calculations on whether to flee Taiwan, for example.

Fills gap in the ecosystem

  • There are numerous well-funded prediction platforms now, but their forecasts have not been extensively used by the media and content creators.

  • BRT seeks to bridge this gap by sharing insights from prediction markets in an engaging way.

  • The money will be used to create compelling content across X/Twitter, YouTube, TikTok and other major social media platforms.

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