Forecasting global disasters

Note: You can see a longer WIP fundraiser here: <https://xrisk.fyi/fundraiser>

Description of proposed project

Here is our funding memo from last year: <https://docs.google.com/document/d/18GWF0pVy5X7M_0e3l49Ze82aqHvVurVpsLm63htmc64/edit?usp=drive_web&ouid=105745069467002633267> since then we have focused more on foresight specifically, and made more emphasis on building automated tooling, essentially due to funder apetite.

Why are you qualified to work on this?

On the forecasting end: top forecaster, previously cofounded Samotsvety. https://samotsvety.org/ - https://samotsvety.org/track-record/

On the institution-building end: I have been able to transition this from an informal project into a 501c3 with a running forecasting team and enough funding for a bit over a year, and similar (but a bit older) people in my peer group (Jaime Sevilla) have been able to build larger organizations without that much difficulty.

What would you do if not funded?

We continue working on this until the end of the year, and we seek alternative funding from the FLF (seems somewhat likely) or Open Philanthropy (seems possible but the process is like pulling a tooth). If neither works then we try to become sustainable via subscriptions or through offering services to hedgefunds. If that doesn't work, we shut down or greatly downsize. Overall I'd model the value of a donation as allowing us to grow faster + increasing runway + increasing likelyhood of surviving sustainable. Which is to say, there is some value of information in seeing what the larger version of Sentinel can look like, but less value of information than for a new project.

How much money do you need?

$5K to $1M. Donations in the $5K range add up and soon become real money. At the $50-100K I'd hire an additional programmer/growth marketer/response person. Donations in the range of $1M allow me to have an organization at the level of Epoch or METR.

Supporting documents

blog.sentinel-team.org

https://x.com/search?q=from%3A%40SebKrier%20Sentinel&src=typed_query

https://x.com/NeelNanda5/status/1917287979430863241

https://github.com/NunoSempere/eye-of-sauron

https://github.com/NunoSempere/ai-osint-mvp