Description of subprojects and results, including major changes from the original proposal
The grant funded CFG staff time on the research and analysis set out in the application. The work is complete.
Over the grant period the team kept the Advanced AI: Possible Futures scenarios under review, updating them as the AI landscape moved. This meant tracking capability developments, revisiting the assumptions behind each of the five trajectories and revising the published material. The current version is at cfg.eu/advanced-ai-possible-futures.
The quantitative side of the project ran alongside this: building out the modelling and dashboard work that links the scenarios to real-world indicators, and applying the framework analytically. The main output is AI Preparedness: Robust Policy Options for Europe (cfg.eu/ai-preparedness-robust-policy-options-for-europe), published at the start of April. The team tested over forty candidate policy options against all five scenarios and published the twenty that performed well across each of them, scored for urgency, tractability and implementation difficulty. The report includes an interactive Policy Explorer so readers can work through the options themselves.
The team also presented the scenario work directly to its intended audience. This included interactive sessions and briefings with officials from the European Commission, EU member state governments and international organisations, walking participants through the five trajectories and what each would mean for their policy areas. These sessions doubled as a feedback loop, with questions from participants feeding into the scenario updates.
Spending breakdown
EXPENDITURE BY COST CATEGORY
A. DIRECT PERSONNEL COSTS
Staff costs – Foresight Analyst salary allocation (Jan–Apr 2026): €25,034.62
Description: Monthly salary-cost allocation of the implementation lead (85% of salary cost) over the Jan–Apr 2026 delivery period
B. DIRECT NON-PERSONNEL & INSTITUTIONAL SUPPORT
Programme subscriptions & tools: €326.70 (AI research tooling subscription, Jan–Mar 2026)
IT / software tools: €30.64 (Cloud and API usage charges)
Travel & local transport: €217.92 (Local transport in Brussels and staff rail travel (Apr 2026))
Stakeholder hospitality: 21.00 (Working lunch with stakeholders (policymaker engagement))
Other programme costs: €0.51 (Minor cloud service charges)
TOTAL EXPENDITURE
€25,631.39
RECONCILIATION AGAINST GRANT
Grant received:€25,613.00 (USD 30,000 received net of FX and transfer fees)
Total expenditure: €25,631.39
Balance – grant received less expenditure: -€18.39
Grant fully expended; overspend of €18.39 absorbed by CFG core funds