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Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India

$1,000raised
$1,000funding goal
$1,250valuation
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Longer description of your proposed project

When Turing Prize (later renamed to AI Alignment Awards) visited India, I helped them with holding seminars, and workshops at different universities, trying to nerd snipe talented students into working on the alignment problem.

One of the most impactful things I could do was actually get more people to read HPMOR. The Harry Potter fan fiction - Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality has been the pipeline for some of the best thinkers in the alignment community to find the problem and care about it.

Most of the people who love it, always express their wish they had found the ideas in it earlier. So, I am applying for this grant to get the money to print additional copies of HPMOR.

I also found superintelligence to be an excellent book to give away to the right crowd, in the right manner. At the end of talks, as prizes to those students or participants who engage and answer questions.

Giving away books on the street to random people is not very impactful and is mostly a waste of paper. Still, people are very invested and likely to engage with the material if the giveaway is planned out in a thoughtful manner.

I am working with my friends - Madhumitha (who recently gave a talk on AI safety at Dev Fest followed by book distribution to those who answered questions) and Bhishmaraj, who works at Google Hyderabad and gave a talk on AGI x risk at IIIT Hyderabad with me. They can help me effectively distribute at least 500 copies of HPMOR.

A few months ago, when I worked with the alignment awards org, the rate was around 10 USD per copy of a book, I did not try to optimize for the quality of paper, binding, etc. This time I think I would like to go for 15 USD to improve the quality of the printing.

I am excited to distribute 500 more copies of HPMOR, but I am also interested in giving away copies of Superintelligence, Brian Christian's Alignment Problem, Nate's Replacing Guilt, or Sequences, etc, depending on the funding amount.

Describe why you think you're qualified to work on this

I am currently a recipient of a Community Builders Grant from CEA to do AI safety field building in India.

I already worked with Akash Wasil (who is currently at the Center for AI Safety) and Olivia when they did similar book give aways in India.

I am currently a Ph.D. student in India's top-ranked fundamental research university - Indian Institute of Science, and have contacts in academia so I can get the book into the hands of prospective graduate students who can contribute to the technical problem.

I have friends who are in FAANG companies working on LLMs, it would be impactful if they also were made aware of the nuanced risks behind the technologies they help bring to market.

Other ways I can learn about you

https://twitter.com/adityaarpitha

https://blog.adityaarpitha.com/

https://t.me/everythingisrelative

How much money do you need?

4500 USD (300 copies) to 600 copies so (15x600 = 9000 USD)

Estimate your probability of succeeding if you get the amount of money you asked for

85% of most copies being read fully

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adityaarpitha avatar
Progress update

What progress have you made since your last update?

On April 6th I signed the grant agreement.

I filled out the withdrawal form to get the funds on May 24th 2024.

Manifund sends me money on 21st June via Mercury and it reaches my domestic Indian bank account on 26th June.

So 1000 USD would be 81,873 INR, I spent a total of 118,740 INR accounted for in the invoices attached - https://www.notion.so/explict/Manifund-1-HPMOR-339c1429d14c4d1e9799a6e384e7b042?pvs=4

Initially I spent 360 to 425 per book but the quality was subpar. I distributed 15 books at an AI safety meetup organized by Axiom Futures event, where we had alignment researchers meet others (PhD students, entrepreneurs, etc) who are interested in AI Safety in Bangalore.

101 books were distributed in IIIT Delhi and IIT Delhi as part of a talk I gave at both institutes where I talked about risks from increasingly generally intelligent systems, an overview of the current landscape and how there were programs like MATs, ARENA, hackathons organised by APART which these students could participate in

What are your next steps?


Now 95 copies for 799 INR each are coming, delivery should happen in a week. I hope to distribute them at the AI safety hackathon happening in the first two weekends of Oct 2024 and at the EAGx Bangalore happening in the 3rd weekend.

Is there anything others could help you with?

I would like feedback/comments on how best to measure impact, and my progress so far. What questions should the survey have?

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1M6Yo55xoYUwrPNbpzgDOv-ALrZ0MuMP36MMFfIKo1V4/edit

For now I have gotten almost 60% responses on the QR code but now the plan is to make it mandatory to fill up form on receiving the copy upfront. Then after 2 months I plan to reach out to them to see if they read the book, lent it to anyone else, and or would like the volume 2.

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marktwse avatar

Andreas Z.

about 1 year ago

HPMOR certainly had an impact one me and having some colleagues in Bangalore, I think it is a great target. There seems to be a focus on AI safety with this proposal but the book advertises rationalist thinking in general, so I consider the value potential is higher. Even with a low success rate, it should not be hard to achieve the 1.3K valuation.

ms avatar

Mikhail Samin

about 1 year ago

Thoughts:

  • Rowling now limits printing fan fiction to 25 copies. (It’s not clear to what extent she would care, but beware that it might be illegal/etc.; you can contact her agent if seems important and you’re unsure.)

  • Getting people with high potential to read HPMOR might be great.

  • Getting random people to read HPMOR via giving them printed books is probably not cost-effective, you can do that cheaper.

  • In Russia, we have thousands of copies essentially for free (it was impossible to to spend on anything other than printing), the cost of delivery to people is usually <$5, and we target winners of national and international olympiads&competitions. To get a book, a student needs to be actively interested and fill out a form. A bunch of people whose opinions high-potential students in Russia might value endorsed HPMOR, which we use, and there are huge network effects we achieved and used. I have no idea how you get to anything similar without first getting some sort of influencers to endorse the book.

  • (We also buy and give copies of The Precipice and Human Compatible to students who receive HPMOR. And we do surveys etc. to have some measure of the impact.)

  • So far, we’ve sent copies of HPMOR to 1.3k winners of olympiads. Again, I have no idea how anything like that would be possible to achieve without having aligned media, aligned people who prepare regional & national teams for olympiads, aligned famous science communicators, literary critics, etc. (it got to the point of even an unaligned most famous modern Russian sci fi author talking negatively about the book).

  • Possibly think about other ways to get people with high potential to read HPMOR? I expect it could be much more cost-effective than via printing physical copies.

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adityaarpitha avatar

Aditya Arpitha Prasad

about 1 year ago

@ms

I had heard that the critical concern JK had was her fans not be exploited using her IP.

> Her concern would be to make sure that it remains a non-commercial activity to ensure fans are not exploited, and it is not being published, in the strict sense of traditional print publishing. - 2004 article

I had thought it should be fine since I am not charging any money and simply giving it away for free. I would love a source on the 25 copies and will likely contact her agent to see if they are ok with this.

If I talk about AI safety and the value this could bring to kids here, I believe it should be possible to get a green light, at least worth trying.


Re: people with high potential, yea so that is why I was targeting places like FOSS (Free and Open Source Software) conferences where youngsters who have traits like altruism, agency, intelligence, gather. I also went to the strategy board game events in the city where a diverse group of people who spend money and their free time on weekends to play complex board games with others.

Picking such locations help find people who have traits that are predictive of being likely to be nerd sniped into AI safety technical work. The other plan is to go to schools and hold competitions and give these away as prizes.

Damn it sounds like a great success in Russia, I would love to chat with you more about that, was there any follow up on these kids to see if reading it had any positive outcomes, even if it is self reported?

I am studying in India's top technical university and can talk to top rankers and Olypiad winners, the network effects seems doable since I have access to these people but I am not sure if I am ready to invest that much of my time and effort on this side project. I might reconsider after hearing how the russian experiment concluded.

Yeah I also did not read the book in a physical copy, I prefer reading it on my eink reader. I have found sending links to hpmor.com or just an epub is often not turning into real engagement with most people. These people often have a lot of pending bookmarked articles to read, videos to watch.

I am open to ideas for how better to package the online experience of this book or others. Maybe a review competition where the best 10 reviews of HPMOR gets a prize? I really don't want to force people too much to read. I just want people who would enjoy it if they read it casually to know that this book, and then the whole rationality rabbithole exists.


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saulmunn avatar

Saul Munn

about 1 year ago

quick thoughts from scanning this for 5-10 minutes:

  • overall, i really like this.

  • reasons i like this:

    • it's a pretty cheap & scalable intervention

    • reading HPMOR does seem to be something that i notice a number of alignment researchers mentioning as to how they first got into alignment

  • parts i'm most concerned about:

    • what's your plan for going from "a bunch of copies of HPMOR" -> "a bunch of copies of HPMOR in the right hands"?

    • i've also heard that a lot of people that have gone into alignment have read (and loved) HPMOR, but this leaves a few concerns:

      • are these the sorts of people that we would want working on alignment?

      • are there other books/series/etc that would get more impactful people engaged?

      • does HPMOR also unnecessarily alienate people to alignment?

  • mikhail samin did exactly this, quite successfully, in russia. you might consider reaching out to him?

i'm donating $50, mostly because i'm excited about this, but also as a positive signal to other investors.

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saulmunn avatar

Saul Munn

about 1 year ago

ms avatar

Mikhail Samin

about 1 year ago

@saulmunn left a top-level comment

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adityaarpitha avatar

Aditya Arpitha Prasad

about 1 year ago

@ms Thanks for the positive signal Saul.

I also can relate to the positive points you mentioned. I think it is a cost-effective use of resources and a surprising number of people seem to have found the alignment problem through the fanfiction pipeline.

Re: the right hands part,

I believe you mean the right people would be people who are likely to enthusiastically enjoy the book, and have the ideas in it affect them

Even if they do not become alignment researchers, I still think it can help them to discover works like Replacing Guilt, and Sequences and apply more rational thinking in their lives. It also helps to find that this community exists out there, it feels nice to belong.

To increase the odds these books are not gathering dust somewhere and are actually read, it helps to target places where the right people are higher in density. I think places where people engage in intellectually stimulating activities, where abstract meta-thinking skills are useful are good places.

I am currently planning to distribute 70% at events held in top universities in India where the competitive exam vets for problem solving skills and gathers smart kids in one place. Then developer events where agentic, curious, altruistic people come to talk about open source software, AI, etc. There are other places like meetups for quantified self, productivity or note-taking apps, which I think are really great spaces.

The remaining 30%, I am planning to go to schools, target younger people who are unlikely to exhibit clear signs of potential but still I would look for agentic behaviour in them by asking the class who the curious kid is, who reads widely, a generalist, etc.

I am excited to talk to Mikhail, I am quite open to adjusting my plans with new information or ideas.

Re: are these the sorts of people that we would want working on alignment?

Before the overton window shifted so much, it made sense to rely on some gate keeping to ensure high signal to noise ratio in alignment research. But I think now we need more robust mechanisms to decide if someone is contributing to the solution or not. The selection pressures by prematurely deciding what kind of people can work on it is likely to yield unacceptable false negatives.

My model is also that we don't have sufficient confident in existing alignment directions that we can commit resources towards exploit and select for people who are making progress in them. Rather we need to still fund explore type research to hopefully make some tractable progress in time.


> are there other books/series/etc that would get more impactful people engaged?

To get people more quickly engaged I would use superintelligence or Brian's Alignment Problem. If enough funders are excited about that I would be happy to use part of the funds for those books too.

HPMOR is not a quick way to get people into alignment if that is the goal. What HPMOR does is get people interested in the rationality community and practice thinking more carefully about risks from such systems. It helps in a more indirect way, communicating the vibe of thinking a certain way.

It will definitely nerd snipe a certain kind of person and the question of if hpmor is worth funding as opposed to other books would depend on what impact means, are these alignment researchers mentioning hpmor doing impactful work? or are they maybe feeding into some sort of deference cascade?

Personally I believe it is a net positive and so I am happy to work on this project but I don't think the answer is cut and dried. People can have well informed views that think hpmor would not have the right kind of selection pressure.

Re: does HPMOR also unnecessarily alienate people to alignment?

I think this also links to the idea of HPMOR being given as a way to push people into alignment. The downside risk of it alienating people comes from feeling manipulated into a certain frame.

This is why I think it is useful to focus on HPMOR as a tool to raise the sanity waterline or increase awareness about ways of thinking. This might lead to the readers being curious about the generator of the work, reading other works, thinking more clearly about AI safety, and wanting to contribute to the field as a side effect. But that would come from within and I don't think it can or should be forced.

It is also true that this pipeline will lead people to discover alignment through the MIRI worldview first and that might bias them. But there is a lot of dissent and other opinions in this space, so even if they find the problem like this, they can engage with and criticize those framing.

But all that risks of alienation comes only if people read this piece of fan fiction, enjoy it enough to go down the rabbit hole of EY's other work. By itself, I do not think the book can piss off anyone.

Even people who dislike or disagree with EY can still enjoy this book and recommend others read it. I believe art stands separate from the artist at least in this case.

🌸

JD

about 1 year ago

What makes printing copies the best way to get more people to read it, as opposed to giving them the link and maybe some sort of prize if they get 10 chapters in?

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adityaarpitha avatar

Aditya Arpitha Prasad

about 1 year ago

@Canadiak I am already giving links out to people I meet and trying to get people to read the soft copy. I believe there is not a lot of margin left there because people who will check it out with low activation energy already have.

The people who prefer hard copies, who are likely to read a book they won in a competition or feel like they earned it, are more likely to complete it and even share it with friends and family.

I think doing a book review competition for the first 10 chapters is still a good idea. I would like to think more about this because I really don't want people to engage with the book like it is a chore they are finishing just to get the prize.

There are examples of my past where I did not really engage with my social science textbook with curiosity because my teacher made it seem like reading it was a task I had to complete to answer a specific set of questions. So I was outcome oriented in how I read it.

It was more than a decade later when I reread those school textbooks with curiosity and openness, I discovered they were actually very interesting and covered history, geography in a fun way.

So I believe the attitude also matters, especially for younger kids where things things are implicitly decided based on how they discover the book and other contextual details.