2

Curated Markets

$0raised
$2,000valuation
Sign in to trade

SUMMARY

Manifold has the opposite problem of PredictIt today: there are too many markets (37,011 markets as of 12/19/23 at 10:16am ET), making it hard to sort through everything to find topics and questions of interest. I'd like to use the dashboard function to create lists of 3 to 6 markets that are of some sort of interest to people notable to the prediction market community (i.e., "Austin's 2024 Picks") and a short blurb about why. Robin Hanson, Nate Silver, and Domer are likely using prediction markets in very different ways that would be interesting for both existing Manifold users and non-users to learn about. These 'Manifold Celebrity Picks' would be spread them out so there are 2 curated dashboards per month; after the first 6 months measure engagement in those markets and re-evaluate. Ideally, this would start with the Manifest speakers and expanding outward to the greater forecasting and prediction market community.

FUNDING

The funding will compensate me for my time. If given contact info from Manifest then I will conduct the project for free because reaching out to people will be the biggest time suck. This is a low-skill but tedious project so only one person is needed. No other funding is needed or requested. Frankly, it could be done by an intern and I'd be fine with that outcome.

POINTS OF FAILURE

The biggest hurdle is engaging the targets. Cold emailing/calling people to ask them to participate will probably generate a low response rate. My experience in direct marketing leads me to believe that having good contact information, and/or emailing targets from an official Manifold email account, would greatly increase the response rate.

FoldyOfficial avatar

Manifold Markets

12 months ago

January 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

Weighted Median Valuation: 0

Eliza: Zero because I don't see any progress, but I think this is very important for Manifold

cc6: Nothing been done

Isaac King: No product. $0.

wasabipesto: It doesn't look like there is any activity on this project.

Rachel: No progress

SG: No comment

James: Not started

Austin: $0 valuation based on no impact so far; but I think curation could be a valuable service, depending on how it’s implemented. I would also encourage Mick to just go ahead and try doing it (eg curating a bunch of series of markets as viral Twitter thread or blog article) instead of waiting for impact cert investment.

Also: I wasn’t aware of this but Mick has been consistently blogging about prediction markets for a while now; this gives me some confidence that he has the right background for executing a project like this one. Check out his work at https://mickbransfield.com/markets/