To create a network dedicated to exploring and championing innovative practices for fostering societies that flourish and progress in the face of rapid demographic aging and immigration. This initiative aims to offer alternatives to the prevailing short-term perspectives on demographic aging and counteract the fearmongering associated with immigration.
The Why?
Most OECD countries, accounting for over 45% of the global GDP, are on a fast track to becoming 'super-aged' nations. This shift brings with it escalating healthcare and pension costs, alongside pronounced labor shortages. At the same time, immigration to OECD countries has excelled driven by labor demands and global upheavals including climate change, conflicts, and economic disparities. Such dynamics have ignited fears over uncontrolled migration, evident in the spread of 'Great Replacement'-type theories.
The prevailing discourse on aging societies and immigration is at best myopic. Beyond the immediate worries about healthcare and pensions, there's a pressing need for deeper analysis on sustaining a dynamic society as the ratio of elderly to working-age population shifts. Moreover, the conversation barely scratches the surface of immigration's socio-cultural impact in aging societies, with most commentary dominated by extremist in the far-right. Addressing the challenges and opportunities these trends present demands a shift towards more nuanced, quality debates on the future of our social and economic fabric.
This is where DemoFutures (placeholder title) comes in.
What?
The goal is to foster innovation and provide a platform for the exploration of new research, resources on cutting-edge practices, and a forum for engaging both the public and policymakers in dialogue about alternative and creative strategies for fostering vibrant communities amidst the challenges of demographic shifts due to aging and migration.
The aim is to expand the discourse and influence decision-makers, the media, and the general populace through targeted media campaigns, interactive public engagements such as workshops, and by addressing critical issues that have been overlooked by mainstream institutions:
How should institutions and policymakers change to create and sustain a thriving yet super-aged society? How do we better support cognitive performance in old age, lifelong learning, career changes, and entrepreneurship at all stages of life?
How can we better assess the risks and challenges of uncontrolled migration, while also redefining integration and social cohesion in the context of rapid demographic shifts? How do we better identify and develop pathways that lead to positive outcomes for immigration in societies that are aging, envisioning diverse and constructive scenarios for the future?
Cross Collaboration/Appeal
Demographic Aging intersects around issues of the future of work, future of learning, automation, cognitive health (including nootropics), and more, there will be a rich area for both cross-collaboration with other organizations as, well as, creating content with wide cross-over appeal. Similarly immigration is a hot-button topic globally; however, this issue needs to be treated with special sensitivity and clear values in looking at new ways to enable harmonious and productive immigration beyond what’s available in dominant discussions.
How?
Given the unprecedented challenges posed by demographic aging, our overall approach emphasizes action-based research. This approach is designed to create dynamic spaces for action, reflection, learning, and iterative refinement throughout each phase of our journey. (The understanding of the space, such as stakeholder mapping, influence mapping, and theory of change, will evolve through each step of the journey.)
Phase 1: Establishing a Foundation of Credibility
Build a baseline of credibility through curating knowledge products on innovative thinking and practices on aging societies and immigration. This can include academic papers, new articles, videos, reports from respected institutions, and more. This compilation will be supplemented by sharing—and eventually crowdsourcing—indications of emerging changes, both positive and negative, to guide policymakers and key stakeholders.
Phase 2: Knowledge Enhancement and Network Expansion
Building on Phase 1, the next phase will focus on active curation and promotion of new thinking and key research and insights .This phase will see the production of monthly briefs and summaries, disseminated through the website, social media platforms, and newsletters, spotlighting recent advances in the field. This will be followed up with a series of podcast interviews featuring thought leaders from academia, policy, business, and community spheres.
(It is expected that in this phase, key learnings around relevant stakeholders and theory of change will come together.)
Phase 3: Engaging with Stakeholders on Public Policy
Through building the organization’s credibility and network through phases 1 and 2, the next stage of development is to begin working with partners for more public-facing engagements. The exact approach must be informed by both learnings from phases 1 and 2 and the objectives/resources of partnering organizations.
The intent is to hold events, from an online event to in-person workshops, to engage with key stakeholders and expand perceptions and possibilities on innovative approaches and respponses to aging demographics and rapid immigration.
My goal is to secure sufficient funding to provide the necessary resources to validate and demonstrate the potential impact of this project within the demographic aging and immigration sectors. The aim is to position the project attractively for partnering organizations, individual collaborators, and institutional funders. This strategic approach is designed to transition the project into a sustainable organization in the short to medium term, to make this project into a sustainable organisation in the short to medium term.
Given these requirements, my high-level assumption is that it will require about USD $11,900 to $13,900 to get the project to the end of Phase 2. This includes third-party resources (software and freelancer) for design work, podcast support, research support, and more.
Phase 1: Establishing a Foundation of Credibility
Timeline: Month 1-3
Costs: 9 days x 300 USD/day = USD 2700
Deliverables:
-Website and branding identify
-Domain, stakeholder, and influence mapping of the space
-Refining the values and objectives of the project, including theory of change
-Resources on key research, emerging practices, and other innovations in this space
-Setup an ‘Emerging Signals’ library of potential signals of change that could substantially reshape the space (negative and positive)
Phase 2: Knowledge Enhancement and Network Expansion
Timeline: Month 3 to 12
Total Costs: USD 10,200
Deliverables:
1. Monthly summaries (9x months) of developers in the space
- 4.5 days (includes creation and distribution) x 300 USD/day: USD 1350
2. Literature Review reports on key areas in this space (1 per quarter, 3 quarters)
- 3 reports x 5 days x 300 USD/day: USD 4500
3. Continuing phase 1 activities (9x months): curating new reports/research, emerging signals
- 9 months x .5 days x 300 USD/day: USD 1350
4. Produce podcast or video podcast (2-3 video/audio podcasts)
- USD 3000 for 3 episodes
Phase 3: Engaging with Stakeholders on Public Policy
Timeline: Around month 9 to 12
This phase would seek to create events (in-person workshops to events) with partnering organizations, as well as going for funding from grant-giving institutions. The funding required would be highly dependent on the types of partnering organizations that this project can succeed in collaborating with.
NOTE: If this project becomes successful or gains traction early, I have looked into establishing the project as a not-for-profit organization based in Estonia. As an e-resident of Estonia and a permanent resident of Spain, this would be relatively low cost and potentially unlock EU funding.
I am confident that my unique combination of skills, experience, and networks positions me well to lead this project to success. To further strengthen the project, I plan to recruit 1-2 additional members who can contribute to both the execution of the initiatives and the organizational development. This recruitment effort is strategically planned for after the completion of Phase 1, at which point I will have amassed enough material and established a strong enough position to attract motivated individuals to join the cause.
Futures and Strategic Foresight Experience
I have over 10 years of experience working in futures and strategic foresight work with organizations like UNICEF, UNDP, FAO, WHO, and others. My work has been recognized by the Association of Professional Futurists (APF). I have a network of academics, policymakers, and other stakeholders who are recognized experts in the intergenerational fairness space at UNICEF and other organizations, as well as climate-migration research, which will be important topics in this project.
I am also currently the co-editor for the Journal of Futures Studies for “The Futures of Future and AI” (special edition) and Perspectives (articles geared towards the general public).
Automation and Future of Work
In the area of automation and the future of work, I was previously an Emerging Fellow at the APF on alternative models for prosperity beyond traditional neoliberal definitions. I was also a researcher with Andy Hines of the University of Houston on his upcoming book Imagining After Capitalism, where I researched alternative models for thinking about growth, degrowth, and prosperity. I have also worked with a colleague at Baden Pusat Statistics, Indonesia’s Statistic Agency, on demographic dividend, digitalization, and entrepreneurship issues.
Personal Incentive as a Global South Immigrant
And finally, as an Indonesian immigrant in a rapidly aging Spain, I am personally invested in understanding the demographic shifts and advocating for policy ideas that better support the society that I am a part of, including my family and my young daughter. Coming from the Global South, I bring a distinct perspective that empowers me to tackle subjects that may be considered taboo or too delicate for individuals or entities of different backgrounds. This unique viewpoint not only enriches the discourse but also grants me the freedom to address critical issues with a fresh, unencumbered approach.
As a freelancer and raising a young family, who is already involved in several non-paying work such as a co-editor at the Journal of Futures Studies and a board member of the Participatory Futures Global Swarm, I do not have much available time to do unpaid work unfortunately.
None. If you have recommendations of other funding sources to pursue, please let me know.